Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 103.803090 118.210741 134.299788 153.672203 176.462498 202.539739 234.804411
2026-02-08 82.293623 100.130206 121.697177 149.950076 186.361792 232.223370 295.181244
2026-02-15 69.117660 88.195684 112.636711 146.728874 193.831693 257.790520 353.272177
2026-02-22 63.892942 84.928275 113.261816 155.037121 216.489696 305.915509 450.428406
2026-03-01 57.892735 79.519077 109.854911 156.670413 229.247818 341.290683 535.334777
2026-03-08 53.207217 75.208744 107.192610 158.601773 242.179069 378.418430 630.246283
2026-03-15 48.824582 70.745807 103.618164 158.383234 251.272477 410.345076 722.618924
2026-03-22 47.008364 69.872956 105.279577 166.521185 275.171895 471.380325 882.866911
2026-03-29 45.102829 68.608535 106.090539 173.204327 297.381574 533.214191 1060.476809
2026-04-05 43.168429 67.067204 106.215437 178.599578 317.917207 595.512743 1255.948036
2026-04-12 40.779996 64.530345 104.361024 180.122113 331.160385 645.453201 1437.233826
2026-04-19 38.374032 61.735014 101.754471 179.865515 340.716375 689.244541 1616.246391
2026-04-26 35.551522 58.062643 97.384062 175.982701 342.794507 718.275800 1770.235288
2026-05-03 32.973671 54.613720 93.107647 171.797584 343.657532 744.918410 1927.560104
2026-05-10 30.726639 51.568699 89.285689 168.049384 344.861188 772.581313 2097.675660
2026-05-17 30.375732 51.925377 91.870357 177.830028 378.482719 889.302693 2592.017364
2026-05-24 29.111045 50.478742 90.834939 179.754944 393.860580 961.807626 2972.307013
2026-05-31 27.987166 49.204775 90.012855 182.030296 410.487706 1041.921282 3418.270313
2026-06-07 26.691395 47.499921 88.168481 181.772905 420.637783 1105.879331 3834.556604
2026-06-14 26.442948 47.813448 90.472260 191.367897 458.480027 1264.450992 4734.878043
2026-06-21 26.023555 47.749892 91.974007 199.258805 493.285337 1424.303036 5751.542819
2026-06-28 25.481626 47.393534 92.811075 205.636222 525.120102 1584.570430 6891.608912
2026-07-05 24.598655 46.269716 91.872326 207.437055 543.867810 1704.618671 7913.402618